There is an age-old question that sports’ fans all ponder, “what is the best sports movie?” Many classics come to mind–Major League, Remember the Titans, Seabiscuit, and many, many more. On April 7, 2014 another title was added to this list of potential winners. “Draft Day” was an attempt to go inside the mind of an NFL General Manager (GM) immediately ahead of the most exciting week in football. As Browns’ GM Sonny Weaver, played by Kevin Costner, prepares for Night One of the Draft, he is pressured by a meddlesome owner–not unlike the real life organization with the Deshaun Watson situation–to make a huge splash in the Draft. With his job under threat, Weaver swung a reckless trade to move up Number 1 overall with the idea being he would select star QB Bo Callahan. Later on in the movie, he swings another trade up to move to Number 6 overall. The last transaction of the movie sees the Browns trade down from Number 6 to Number 7 in one of the wildest moments in sports’ cinema. The big question is, did Weaver win the trades?
To discover the answer, we must find a way to quantify the value of the trades. Luckily for us, back in the ‘80s and ‘90s the Dallas Cowboys utilized a chart which assigned a value to each draft pick. They used it to evaluate any trade they made involving draft capital. It was a great contributing factor to their success over those two decades. The chart is now widely available thanks to the power of the internet, meaning we can properly evaluate each trade.
Trade 1 - Browns receive: Pick 1
Seahawks receive: Pick 7, Browns’ Round 1 Pick next Draft, Browns’ Round 1 Pick two Drafts in the future
When negotiating this deal the Seahawks initially asked for only one future First Round Pick from the Browns. However, when Weaver calls back to take the deal, Seahawks’ GM Tom Michaels tells Sonny, “the deal no longer exists,” leading to the inclusion of an additional First Round Pick. The First Overall pick in the Draft holds a value of 3000. The Seventh Overall Pick holds a value of 1500. Now you may be wondering, “how can we assign a value to future draft capital, the number of that pick is unknown?” This is true, we do not know. Therefore, each future pick receives the value of the 16th pick in that round. So each of the future first round picks is treated as the 16th Overall pick and, therefore, attains a value of 1000.
3000 > 1500 + 2(1000)
The 3500 value of the Browns package is more valuable than the 3000 value of the First Overall pick, meaning the Browns lost this trade. At this point, the Browns’ Total Value Acquired (TVA) is -500.
Trade 2 - Browns receive: Pick 6
Jaguars receive: Pick 39, Browns’ Round 2 Pick next Draft, Browns’ Round 2 Pick two Drafts in the future
This trade occurs when, due to the Browns selecting Vontae Mack at First Overall, Bo Callahan slides in the Draft. Weaver swings the deal with the Jaguars to move back in front of the Seahawks. Pick 6 holds a value of 1600. Pick 39 holds a value of 510. The two future Second Round picks are assigned the value of pick 48 (32+16), as they are unknown. Pick 48 holds a value of 420.
510 + 2(420) = 1350 < 1600
The Browns win this deal, but by a narrower margin than they lost the initial trade. The +250 Value Acquired cuts their losses in half, bringing their TVA to -250.
Trade 3 - Browns receive: Pick 7, Browns’ Round 1 Pick next Draft, Browns’ Round 1 Pick two Drafts in the future, Returner David “Godd**n” Putney
Seahawks receive: Pick 6
The negotiation of this deal acts as the climax of the movie. Back in front of Seattle, Weaver dangles the prospect of Bo Callahan in front of their nose like a feather in front of a house cat. At first, Weaver asks for the three Picks he initially traded to Seattle in the first trade. However, giving Michaels a taste of his own medicine, Weaver declares, “that deal’s off the table,” forcing him to include prolific Kick Returner, David Putney to get the deal done. Looking at just the Picks. Pick 6 holds a value of 1600, and as we know from earlier the combination of Picks 7, and the two Future Round 1 selections hold a value of 3500.
3500 > 1600
It cannot be understated how much of a win this deal is for the Browns. Only taking into account the Picks, the Browns Value Acquired in this trade is +1900. With a prolific Special Teamer like Putney only increasing the value the Browns acquired more, the net gain in this trade is well over +2000.
With all the deals added together, the TVA of Sonny Weaver’s deals comes out to at the very least +1650 when only factoring in the draft capital exchanged. Once we add in the value of David Putney, that brings the DPV acquired to up above +1750. Pick 4 holds a value of 1800, and Pick 5 holds a value of 1750, meaning that Weaver acquired the value of a Top 5 Draft Pick.
The Browns aced the trades in Draft Day. If only they could ace trades the same way in real life.