When looking at this most recent MLB offseason there are a few very obvious “winners” that come to mind. Most of them achieved their “Offseason Champion” status by spending the big bucks. The Mets signed free agent pitchers Justin Verlander, Kodai Senga, and Jose Quintana to a total of $187.6 million. They also re-signed Star Closer Edwin Diaz and Center Fielder Brandon Nimmo to deals totalling $264 million. The Yankees spent a mind boggling $400 million to retain Aaron Judge and Anthony Rizzo, and shelled out $162 million to acquire the services of Carlos Rodon. Lastly, the Phillies, capitalizing on their surprise World Series run, poached two key pieces from playoff rivals in Trea Turner and Taijuan Walker. They spent $372 million to do it.
Unfortunately, not all MLB owners are willing to spend that type of money to attain guys on the open market. These small market teams have to explore other options to improve their ball clubs, most often trades. The team in question today only spent $5.5 million total on Free Agents. However, a few of these signings were very good, under the radar moves including Wade Miley, Brian Anderson, Tyler Naquin, and Luke Voit. (Did that give away the mystery team?) Every other addition to their roster came via trade.
The Milwaukee Brewers spent the majority of the offseason doing their best Tampa Bay impression. They made multiple shrewd moves, dealing away players with upcoming expiring contracts to acquire players with more team control, and pulled off the heist of the offseason.
The Brew Crew’s first big move of the offseason is easily their worst, but was still a good move. They dealt their best hitter from last season, Hunter Renfroe, to the Angels for–there is really no other way of saying it–three no-name pitchers in Janson Junk, Elvis Peguero, and Adam Seminaris. In his lone season with the Brewers, Renfroe put up 29 home runs and had his second consecutive season with an OPS over .800. The reason to trade him rested solely on his price tag. After successful 2021 and 2022 seasons, 2023 is Renfroe’s last season of arbitration, aka his last year under team control. The Brewers moved Renfroe early so they could avoid paying the $11.9 million the Angels now owe him, and to recoup some assets. The issue, though, is the apparent value of those assets. None of the three pitchers acquired has had any sustained success in the majors. Junk and Peguero have combined for 44.1 IPs over the past two seasons at the majors with ERAs of 4.74 for Junk and 9.15 for Peguero. The highest level of ball Seminaris has made it so far in his career is AAA where he put up a 5.24 ERA in 34.1 IPs. However, if there is one certainty in the MLB, it is that the Brewers know pitching. Year after year, the Brewers find ways to turn no-names and underachievers into studs on the mound. With the departures of Taylor Rogers and Brad Boxberger, the Brewers will need at least one of the three to take major steps forward. And with Milwaukee’s track record of success, there is no reason to doubt that they can.
Restocking the pitching depth is nice and all, but Renfroe’s departure left a gaping hole in the Brewers’ offense. That brings us to the Brewers second big trade of the offseason.
On December 2, the Brewers struck a deal with the Seattle Mariners. They sent veteran 2B Kolten Wong and $1.75 million to the Mariners for IF Abraham Toro and OF Jesse Winker. Like Renfroe, both Wong and Winker had one year left on their contracts before they hit the open market. Toro, however, only entered his first year of arbitration this year, giving the Brewers three full seasons of team control.
The key with this trade and, to some extent, also the Renfroe trade, was the Brewers selling high and buying low. In his two years with the Brewers, Kolten Wong had two of his best offensive seasons. This is no real surprise though, as American Family Field (that feels wrong, Miller Park was such a better name) is a well known hitter’s park. From 2020-2022, it ranked as the 12th most hitter-friendly venue according to Statcast’s Park Factor rating, a sharp contrast from his previous home park, Busch Stadium, which ranked 27th out of 30. Expect a dip in his production this upcoming season. His new home, T-Mobile Park, ranked dead last in Park Factor rating.
That brings us to Winker and Toro. The Mariners acquired Winker from the Reds before last season to put some more umph in their lineup. It did not work out. Winker had by far the worst season of his career only putting up a .688 OPS, nearly 300 points lower than the year prior with the Reds. T-Mobile Park ate him alive. In 236 plate appearances there last season, his OPS was .625. The shift back to the NL Central should improve those numbers significantly. In 109 career plate appearances at American Family Field/Miller Park, Winker has an OPS of 1.012 with five home runs and six doubles.
Unlike Winker, Abraham Toro has no real track record of success. His highest OPS so far is a .688 in 2021. That number dipped down to .563 in 2022. If you look at his baseball savant page, there is a lot of blue, with the most damning number being his fifth percentile Hard Hit%. However, his rankings are very similar to Kolten Wong’s. Toro’s two red areas, Whiff% and K%, were in the 66th and 68th percentiles for the 2022 season, not too far off Wong’s 78th and 72nd percentile rankings. Additionally, those percentiles were substantial drop offs from Toro’s 2021 numbers, where he was in the 89th percentile of each stat. If he can return to his 2021 form in 2023, the ballpark effect should lead to a noticeable uptick in offensive production for Toro.
Going a little bit out of order, on December 14, the Brewers acquired Utility man Owen Miller from the Cleveland Guardians for Future Considerations. After getting off to an incredibly fast start to the 2022 season with a 1.166 OPS in April, Miller cooled off significantly, putting up measly .588 OPS over the last five months of the season. His defensive versatility will make him a useful bench piece for the Brew Crew, and the low to nonexistent acquisition price makes any offensive production a bonus.
Now, on to the heist of the offseason. The most high profile trade from the MLB offseason was the Sean Murphy sweepstakes. Everyone and their grandma knew the A’s were going to offload the star Catcher as part of their teardown. For a while it looked like a two horse race between the Cardinals and Guardians. Then, out of nowhere, on December 12, the Braves swooped in and acquired the All Star for a much lower price than anyone expected. The only aspect of the trade more confusing than the A’s return was the inclusion of a third team, the Brewers. Here is a breakdown of the Brewers’ involvement in this trade.
Brewers send Utility man Esteury Ruiz to the A’s
A’s send Pitcher Joel Payamps to the Brewers
Braves send Pitcher Justin Yeager and Catcher/DH William Contreras to the Brewers
The Brewers netted two more pitchers and one of the best hitting catchers of last season for a utility man who has only played 17 MLB games.
Addressing the pitchers first. Yeager is a minor leaguer and, presumably, still a ways away from the majors. Payamps, on the other hand, has accrued two years of MLB service time over the past four seasons, and has looked good. A 3.35 ERA in 113 IPs, with a K-rate of around 18% indicates he will slot straight into the Brewers’ bullpen. And as established earlier, the Brewers know pitching. It would come as no surprise if Payamps’ K-rate rises significantly this season thanks to Milwaukee’s coaching.
Moving on to the meaty part of the deal, William Contreras. I still have no idea how the Brewers managed this. The A’s gave up the best player in the trade, and did not get the second best player, the Brewers did, and they gave up almost nothing for him. Contreras broke out last year with the Braves. He made the All Star game, smacking 20 home runs and putting up an .860 OPS. His Baseball Savant page is the exact opposite of Toro’s, a lot of red. As an added bonus, Contreras has only logged one year of service time. He has two more seasons before he hits arbitration, and then the three years of arbitration. That is five seasons of an elite, offensive catcher on the cheap, or at the very least, cost controlled. The only knock against Contreras at the moment, is his defense, but I do not think the Brewers care.
Ever since Christian Yelich got hurt at the tail end of the 2019 season, the Brewers’ offense has lacked that extra gear. A healthy Yelich got them to Game 7 of the NLCS in 2018, and that was before the true breakouts of Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff. Their “Ace” that season was Jhoulys Chacin. Almost all of their trades since then have been to improve the offense. During the 2021 season, they acquired Willy Adames and Rowdy Tellez. Now, they have added Contreras, Toro, and Winker.
The Brewers repeatedly sold high and bought low this offseason. They were able to recoup assets for expiring contracts, and even acquire years of team control in the process. So while they did not make flashy, big money signings, they easily had one of the best offseasons in the league.
High Key forgot the Mets got Verlander and the brewers got Winker.